The 10-year Treasury yield rose to a one-year high of 1.49% in rapid move unnerving investors

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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/us-bonds-treasury-yields-rise-ahead-of-fourth-quarter-gdp-update.html

 

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield topped the 1.49% level on Thursday morning, its highest level in more than a year.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed to 1.494%, its highest level since February 21, 2020. It was up about 10 basis points on the session. A basis point is equal to 0.01%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to 2.317%. Yields move inversely to prices.

 

The move higher in rates is unnerving investors fearing inflation could be driving it instead of just the economy recovering. The 10-year yield ended January at 1.09%. It closed 2020 well under 1%. So it’s moved more than a half percentage point in under two months, quite rapid for the bond market and relative to rates at these historically low levels.

“To be sure, if bond yields continue to rise and there is a smooth rotation out of growth and defensive stocks into value and cyclical stocks, the Fed will remain sanguine,” strategist Albert Edwards from Societe Generale said in a note. “But the risk is growing that with so many bubbles blown by the Fed something will burst soon.”

If the 10-year yield breaches the 1.5% mark, it will be the first time the Treasury has traded that high since Feb. 21, 2020.

Some strong economic data boosted yields further on Thursday. Weekly data for new unemployment insurance claims came in at 730,000, below the 845,000 new claims expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Data for durable goods also came in better than expected.

An update to the fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate came in at 4.1%, slightly above the advance reading released by the Commerce Department last month.

Stocks fell to new lows for the day as yields rose. The Dow was last down more than 100 points.

Pending home sales data for January showed a 2.8% decline compared with the previous month, missing estimates.

The Federal Reserve’s Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles is scheduled to talk at the Atlanta Fed’s 2021 banking outlook conference at 11:10 a.m. ET.

Auctions will be held Thursday for $30 billion of 4-week bills, $35 billion of 8-week bills and $62 billion of 7-year notes.

 

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